The daily chart for HGX (172.69) shows rising momentum with the index above its 21-day, 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages at 164.55, 163.48 and 141.50. HGX is up 134.5% since the October 2011 low and is up 67.8% year to date. HGX crossed my monthly pivot at 166.82 this week, and I show a projected monthly risky level at 173.86 in Jan 2013. This week's value level is 159.16.
Reading the Table
OV/UN Valued: The stocks with a red number are undervalued by this percentage. Those with a black number are overvalued by that percentage according to ValuEngine.VE Rating: A "1-Engine" rating is a Strong Sell, a "2-Engine" rating is a sell, a "3-Engine" rating is a hold, a "4-Engine" rating is a buy and a "5-Engine" rating is a strong buy. Last 12-Month Return (%): Stocks with a red number declined by that percentage over the last 12 months. Stocks with a Black number increased by that percentage. Forecast 1-Year Return: Stocks with a red number are projected to decline by that percentage over the next 12 months. Stocks with a black number are projected to move higher by that percentage over the next 12 months. Value Level: The price at which to enter a GTC Limit Order to buy on weakness. The letters mean; W-Weekly, M-Monthly, Q-Quarterly, S-Semiannual and A- Annual. Pivot: A level between a value level and risky level that should be a magnet during the timeframe noted. Risky Level: The price at which to enter a GTC Limit Order to sell on strength. D.R. Horton (DHI) ($20.08 vs. $19.58 on Nov. 28) still has a buy rating even though the stock is 25% overvalued with an elevated 12-month trailing price-to-earnings ratio at 25.4. DHI tested its 50-day SMA at $20.07 on Tuesday with its Sept. 21 high at $22.79. My quarterly value level is $18.11 with monthly risky level at $22.26. Hovnanian (HOV) ($6.05 vs. $5.49 on Nov. 28) has had a double-downgrade to strong sell from hold since Nov. 28, and is projected to decline by 22.6% over the next 12 months. HOV set a new multi-year high at $6.10 on Tuesday. After a gain of 351.5% over the last 12 months and given the downgrade, this stock has become a MOJO play only. KB Home (KBH) ($17.00 vs. $14.61 on Nov. 28) has been downgraded to hold from buy since that Nov 28 post. After a gain of 138.8% over the last 12 months this stock has become a pure momentum play as the stock approaches its multi-year high of $17.30 set on Oct 19. Lennar Corp (LEN) ($39.71 vs. $38.72 on Nov. 28) still has a buy rating, is 60.6% overvalued and up 112.8% over the last 12 months with a P/E of 37.1. My weekly value level is $36.07 with a monthly pivot at $38.58 and annual risky level at $44.87. The stock set a new multi-year high at $39.72 on Tuesday. Pulte Group (PHM) ($18.61 vs. $17.11 on Nov. 28) has been downgraded to buy from strong buy since Nov. 28, is 27.4% overvalued after gaining 223.1% over the last 12 months. The stock has a trailing 12-month P/E at 30.9. My weekly value level is $15.82 with a monthly pivot at $18.11 and annual risky level at $26.56. The stock set a new multi-year high at $18.71 on Tuesday. Ryland Group (RYL) ($37.39 vs. $33.72 on Nov. 28) still has a buy rating, is 17.8% overvalued after a gain of 162.0% over the last 12 months. The stock has a trailing 12 month P/E of 58.4. My weekly value level is $34.18 with a monthly pivot at $36.70 and annual risky level at $49.02. The stock set a new multi-year high at $37.50 on Tuesday. Standard & Pacific (SPF) ($7.23 vs. $6.90 on Nov. 28) has been downgraded to hold from buy since Nov 28. The stock is 46.0% overvalued after gaining 151.0% over the last 12 months and has a P/E of 44.3. My weekly value level is $5.65 with a monthly risky level at $7.95. The stock failed at $7.90 three times: Sept. 21, Oct. 17 and Oct. 25. Toll Brothers (TOL) ($32.51 vs. $32.11 on Nov. 28) still has a buy rating, is 26.9% overvalued after gaining 65.4% over the last 12 months. The stock has a 12-month trailing P/E ratio of 50.7. My annual value level is $29.30 with a monthly risky level at $36.95. TOL is lagging its multi-year high of $37.08 set on Sept. 21.
At the time of publication, the author held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned. Follow @Suttmeier This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.
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