NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Nymex crude oil peaked at $100.42 per barrel on Sept. 14, which was the day after the FOMC announced QE3. Oil subsequently declined 15.9% to $84.05, into Nov. 7. On Dec. 12, the FOMC announced QE4. Since then, oil has moved sideways to up.
Analysis of Nymex Crude Oil ($87.72): On Dec. 14, I wrote FOMC QE4 Foolishness Pushes Stocks to Cliff Edge. In this post I projected that crude oil had upside potential to its 200-day simple moving average at $92.62. A daily close above the 50-day SMA at $87.63 would enhance this upside potential. A close this week above the five-week modified moving average at $87.79 shifts the weekly chart profile to positive. The chart support is the 200-week SMA at $84.27.
Fundamentally, ValuEngine shows the oils-energy sector 5.2% undervalued, with the oil & gas exploration & production industry 10.0% undervalued; the oil & gas field services industry 2.0% undervalued; oil & gas international integrated industry 10.5% undervalued; the oil & gas drilling industry 3.6% undervalued; the oil & gas machinery & equipment industry 5.1% overvalued; and the oil refining and marketing industry 7.2% overvalued.
With the technicals improving for Nymex crude oil and with the oils-energy sector the most undervalued of the 16 sectors covered by ValuEngine, it's time for investors to increase allocations to this sector.Back on Oct. 2, I wrote Will the Oils-Energy Sector Catch QE Fatigue?. Here are two stocks investors should consider adding to their investment portfolios: Apache (APA) ($77.02 on Dec. 14 vs $86.41 on Oct. 2) is near its year-to-date low at $74.50, set on Nov. 16. The daily chart is positive, with the 50-day and 200-day SMAs at $80.43 and $87.41. The weekly chart shows oversold momentum and a weekly close this week above the five-week MMA at $78.73 would result in a positive weekly chart profile. National Oilwell Varco (NOV) ($64.87 on Dec. 14 vs. $80.55 on Oct. 2) has declined about 25% since setting a multi-year high at $89.95 on Sept. 18. NOV has an oversold daily chart and an oversold weekly chart, with the five-week MMA at $69.72. My monthly value level is $64.63, with upside to the 50-day and 200-day SMAs at $72.98 and $73.83.
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