2013 Predictions: Twitter's IPO, Apple's Evolution, Europe's Implosion and Obama's Big Year (Update 1)
Elisabeth DeMarse, TheStreet's Chairman and CEO:
"My private poll of CIOs says next year could be a pretty decent year accelerating in the second half. Housing, autos and higher quality earnings are in the plus column. Exports, not so much. We should have some continued earnings growth, plus continuation of dividends. $1.7 trillion in cash on the balance sheets of the S&P 500 says M+A and capital investment could drive some of the recovery. My one pick is Apple, because I agree with TheStreet's Chris Ciaccia, who thinks AAPL is oversold."
William Inman, TheStreet's Editor-in-Chief:"Look for more protectionist policies out of Washington -- higher tariffs, import restrictions, limits on overseas job sourcing and manufacturing -- as a Republican-stalemated Congress and the Obama administration find common ground in a tough political and economic environment."
Chris Ciaccia, TheStreet's Technology Reporter: "I'm pretty certain 2013 will not be a kind year to the equity markets, at least initially. I believe concerns over the fiscal cliff and a pending recession lead us lower. President Obama and Congress are doing their very best to make the American public, businesses and markets frazzled that a deal will get done to avoid going over the cliff." "Taking some inspiration from Jeff Gundlach, of Doubleline Capital, I believe that Congress does not solve the cliff the way the markets like, essentially doing a can-kick into next year, as the choices become increasingly different to resolve. I believe 2013 is the year we see the implosion of monetary policy, as Ben Bernanke and the rest of the Federal Reserve are unable to save the country from Washington, and the subsequent rounds of quantitative easing have little or no effect on the economy and job market. I do not see Gundlach's "kaboom" moment happening in 2013, though I think it happens before Obama's next term ends." "Only a meaningful deal between Obama and Congress can restore the country to better fiscal times, and this means a lower market for a good chunk of 2013." Year-end S&P 500 target: 1,460 (it closed at 1,414 on Dec. 14)
James Rogers, TheStreet Technology Editor: "The biggest tech story of early 2013 will likely be the arrival of Research In Motion's (RIMM) eagerly anticipated, yet much-delayed, BlackBerry 10 operating system." "The embattled Canadian handset maker will unveil the OS, along with two BlackBerry 10 devices, at a worldwide launch event on Jan. 30." "TheStreet got a sneak peek of BlackBerry 10 running on a prototype of one of RIM's new devices recently and was impressed with the new OS." "The stakes, though, couldn't be higher for RIM, which has taken a pounding from Apple's (AAPL) iPhone and Google (GOOG) Android devices, as well as its own product delays. Set against this backdrop, RIM shares have plunged more than 23% over the past 12 months, but have rallied recently ahead of the BlackBerry 10 launch." "Some 75% of respondents to TheStreet's ongoing BlackBerry 10 poll say they will buy a BlackBerry 10 device." "While the new OS looks set to boost RIM, a big question mark still hangs over the company's long-term prospects. A successful BlackBerry 10 launch may quiet some of the M&A chatter that has swirled around RIM in recent months, but investors will be keen to see the phone giant fully capitalize on the new OS. Expect RIM to charge hard in its efforts to license BlackBerry 10 to other manufacturers."
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