This account is pending registration confirmation. Please click on the link within the confirmation email previously sent you to complete registration.
Need a new registration confirmation email? Click here
TheStreet Open House

What If the Real 'Big One' Hits the Northeast?

NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- We've been quite lucky that no major hurricanes have hit the United States over the past seven years.

In the wake of the massive flood damage caused by the Category 1 Hurricane Sandy in late October and an excellent concert last Wednesday at Madison Square Garden to raise funds for victims' relief, that may seem like a strange statement, but "none of the twenty major hurricanes forming in the Atlantic basin in the past six years have impacted the U.S. coastline at major hurricane strength," according to the Tropical Meteorology Project.

A major hurricane is a storm of Category 3, 4 or 5, "which reaches a sustained low-level wind of at least 111 mph (96 knots or 50 ms-1) at some point in its lifetime," according to the Tropical Meteorology Project, which is led by William Gray, professor emeritus of atmospheric science at Colorado State University.

The Odds of a Big One


While the Project's quantitative hurricane forecast for 2013 will not be released until April 10, the group's Dec. 7 Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and Landfall Strike Probability for 2013 includes a "qualitative discussion" on various factors underlining a very busy period for hurricane activity, that is likely to continue.

According to the Dec. 7 report, the past seven years have been quite unusual, with no major hurricanes hitting the mainland, following a very difficult 2004 and 2005, "when seven of 13 major hurricanes made U.S. landfall," including the catastrophic Hurricane Katrina, which hit New Orleans in late August 2005. The Tropical Meteorology Project said that "The last 100-year climatology indicates that approximately 30% of all major hurricanes that form in the Atlantic basin make U.S. landfall as major hurricanes."

While the Dec. 7 report didn't contain specific number predictions, it did include probabilities for tropical storm and hurricane hits for 2013. The probability of a "named storm" hitting the East Coast, including Florida, is 81%, while the probability of Category 1 or 2 hurricane hitting is 44%, with a 31% probability of a major hurricane of Category 3, 4 or 5 making landfall, during 2013.

1 of 3

Select the service that is right for you!

COMPARE ALL SERVICES
Action Alerts PLUS
Try it NOW

Jim Cramer and Stephanie Link actively manage a real portfolio and reveal their money management tactics while giving advanced notice before every trade.

Product Features:
  • $2.5+ million portfolio
  • Large-cap and dividend focus
  • Intraday trade alerts from Cramer
  • Weekly roundups
TheStreet Quant Ratings
Try it NOW
Only $49.95/yr

Access the tool that DOMINATES the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500.

Product Features:
  • Buy, hold, or sell recommendations for over 4,300 stocks
  • Unlimited research reports on your favorite stocks
  • A custom stock screener
  • Upgrade/downgrade alerts
Stocks Under $10
Try it NOW

David Peltier, uncovers low dollar stocks with extraordinary upside potential that are flying under Wall Street's radar.

Product Features:
  • Model portfolio
  • Stocks trading below $10
  • Intraday trade alerts
  • Weekly roundups
Dividend Stock Advisor
Try it NOW

Jim Cramer's protege, David Peltier, identifies the best of breed dividend stocks that will pay a reliable AND significant income stream.

Product Features:
  • Diversified model portfolio of dividend stocks
  • Alerts when market news affect the portfolio
  • Bi-weekly updates with exact steps to take - BUY, HOLD, SELL
Real Money Pro
Try it NOW

All of Real Money, plus 15 more of Wall Street's sharpest minds delivering actionable trading ideas, a comprehensive look at the market, and fundamental and technical analysis.

Product Features:
  • Real Money + Doug Kass Plus 15 more Wall Street Pros
  • Intraday commentary & news
  • Ultra-actionable trading ideas
Options Profits
Try it NOW

Our options trading pros provide daily market commentary and over 100 monthly option trading ideas and strategies to help you become a well-seasoned trader.

Product Features:
  • 100+ monthly options trading ideas
  • Actionable options commentary & news
  • Real-time trading community
  • Options TV
To begin commenting right away, you can log in below using your Disqus, Facebook, Twitter, OpenID or Yahoo login credentials. Alternatively, you can post a comment as a "guest" just by entering an email address. Your use of the commenting tool is subject to multiple terms of service/use and privacy policies - see here for more details.
Submit an article to us!
DOW 17,131.97 +100.83 0.59%
S&P 500 1,998.98 +14.85 0.75%
NASDAQ 4,552.7590 +33.8570 0.75%

Brokerage Partners

Rates from Bankrate.com

  • Mortgage
  • Credit Cards
  • Auto

Free Newsletters from TheStreet

My Subscriptions:

After the Bell

Before the Bell

Booyah! Newsletter

Midday Bell

TheStreet Top 10 Stories

Winners & Losers

Register for Newsletters
Top Rated Stocks Top Rated Funds Top Rated ETFs