China has successfully adjusted to a lower trend growth rate, and policymakers are driving a significant shift in income distribution towards households and away from businesses. While this means China will not play the same locomotive role globally, it will make Chinese expansion more politically as well as economically sustainable and the global economy less exciting but more stable.
Recommendations in Barclays Global Outlook include:
Underweight fixed income in developed markets
- Favor high yield over investment grade credit and expect US financials to outperform industrials
Overweight equities in developed markets
- Balance allocation to the relatively low-risk US with positions in Europe and Japan
- Overweight emerging markets external and local debt
- Do not overweight emerging markets equities generally, given limited prospects for growth acceleration and FX appreciation
- Buy gold against the yen – gold is the one commodity which may receive some support from central bank actions and we expect the yen to depreciate by as much as 10% in response to easier monetary policy from the Bank of Japan
Barclays Global Outlook research report, published quarterly, provides an assessment of all major economies and outlines the likely implications for global financial markets, including commodities, credit, economics, emerging markets, equities, fixed income and foreign exchange.
Barclays moves, lends, invests and protects money for customers and
clients worldwide. With over 300 years of history and expertise in
banking, we operate in over 50 countries and employ over 140,000 people.
We provide large corporate, government and institutional clients with a
full spectrum of solutions to their strategic advisory, financing and
risk management needs. Our clients also benefit from access to the
breadth of expertise across Barclays. We’re one of the largest financial
services providers in the world, and are also engaged in retail banking,
credit cards, corporate banking, and wealth and investment management.
Barclays offers premier investment banking products and services to its
clients through Barclays Bank PLC. For more information, visit
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