Investors have long considered Citigroup an international growth play, and the company's stock underperformed the market during the first half of 2012, returning just 4%, while the KBW Bank Index rose 16%, because of reduced growth forecasts for emerging market economies.
Orenbuch said in a report on Wednesday that his firm believes that emerging markets growth "will reverse in 2013 and accelerate into 2014, leading Citi to grow faster than US peers." Credit Suisse "expects growth rates in most emerging market economies under coverage to rise, with growth of 5.2% in 2013 and 5.6% in 2014 versus 4.7% growth in 2012."
Citigroup last Wednesday announced a significant move to cut expenses, by cutting 11,000 positions and closing 84 branches, including 44 in the United States, 15 in South Korea, 14 in Brazil, seven in Hong Kong and four in Hungary. The company said that the moves would reduce expenses by $900 million in 2013, with annual savings increasing to $1.1 billion in 2014.The company said that the branch closures in emerging markets were "consistent with Citi's strategy of focusing on the 150 cities that have the highest growth potential in consumer banking." Orenbuch estimated that out of the 11,000 positions being eliminated by Citigroup, "about 53% or 5,825 of the total will be derived from Operations & Technology," and said that the company's estimate that its annual revenue would decline by only $300 million as a result of the cuts was "further evidence that the reductions will largely center on non-client facing positions, limiting the negative impact to Citi's top line." Along with the announced branch closings, Orenbuch said that "Citi plans to scale back or sell consumer operations in Pakistan, Paraguay, Romania, Turkey and Uruguay," showing the company's "renewed focus on where investment dollars are allocated and a focus on being present in high-growth, high traffic urban markets. This shows that Citi is willing to reduce or eliminated modest positions in countries where it is less likely to earn adequate returns."
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