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TheStreet Open House

Apple's Stock Could Still Double, Even if it Doesn't Sell 156 Million iTVs

Stocks in this article: AAPLMSFT

NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- Eric Jackson, who contributes to TheStreet as well as Forbes, wrote a compelling and provocative piece for the latter Monday: Apple Might Sell 156 Million iTVs In Its First Year, Doubling Stock.

Whoa! If Apple (AAPL) hadn't become such a casino I might argue that Jackson helped lift the stock Tuesday. But that was just a continuation of the whipsaw driving long-term investors nuts.

Jackson took Morgan Stanley research and fleshed it out. Katy Huberty claims Apple could sell 13 million iTVs at $1,060 a pop, adding $14 billion in revenue and $4.50 EPS to the top and bottom lines. Jackson extrapolates her number -- adding those on the fence about buying iTV and international sales -- to get to 156 million Apple TV sets sold. In one year. 365 days. Most likely between the holidays of 2013 and 2014.

I don't hold Jackson to that number. His math simply extends Huberty's work in one logical, if not incredibly optimistic, direction. But I do hold him to this much: iTV will pick up where iPod, iPhone and iPad left off.

And really, through all of the noise, that's what it comes down to at Apple: Can Tim Cook produce a product that even comes close to reaching his predecessor's heights? That's the long-term elephant in the room people ripped me for talking about months ago, but have latched onto since AAPL started imploding.

Steve Jobs is gone; will Apple become ordinary?

I'm still not confident, but, even with the stock struggling, I'm not as bearish as I once was. While quite a few cats discounted Tim Cook's recent interviews as uneventful, I disagree. Cook sounded more like the type of confident, read-between-my-lines-if-you-can CEO Apple had, deserves and requires. Plus, Cook tipped us off just a tiny bit more to what the next iteration of Apple TV will be.

As I explain in the above-linked article, iTV will not be a mere set-top box or remote control. And it will not be something that depends on content for success. Apple already has the iTunes platform for content. It might cut some side deals, but nothing too high profile. There's no need for that.

Apple will focus on doing what it does best: Leveraging the allure and stickiness of the iOS ecosystem (Jackson explains that angle well) and focusing on the user experience.

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