While AIG is now free from the extra scrutiny that goes with having the government as its major shareholder, it is now regulated by the Federal Reserve at the holding company level, as a "global systemically important financial institution," and will be subject to the regulator's annual stress tests, making it appear unlikely that the company will repeat the derivative trading mistakes that necessitated the company's bailout through the Troubled Assets Relief Program, or TARP.
But AIG will lose what some analysts have called an advantage in pricing its insurance products and gaining market share, because of the government banking. The company also trailed its major property and casualty insurance competitors in underwriting profitability, even before Hurricane Sandy hit the Northeast.
But analysts are generally positive on the company's prospects, as 14 out of 22 analysts polled by Thomson Reuters rate AIG's shares a "Buy," while the remaining analysts all have neutral ratings.
Nadel rates AIG a "Buy," with a price target of $40.00 and estimates the company will earn $3.20 a share in 2013, with EPS increasing to $3.75 in 2014.AIG's shares have now returned 52% year-to-date, following a 52% decline during 2011. The shares trade for 10 times the consensus 2013 EPS estimate of $3.49, among analysts polled by Thomson Reuters. The consensus 2014 EPS estimate is four dollars. AIG data by YCharts
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