This Day On The Street
Continue to site
This account is pending registration confirmation. Please click on the link within the confirmation email previously sent you to complete registration.
Need a new registration confirmation email? Click here

2013: You Don't Need a Weatherman

NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- This is about the time of the year you begin to see predictions from experts as well as, sadly, so-called experts, about what's going to happen next year. "Gold will be up, employment down, consensus earnings will degrade during the second half of the year, and markets will be flat for 2013."

That may be for some, but that's not me.

I'm not a predictions guy, at least not at the granular level. This is, to a degree out of respect for the markets in the same way people tend to respect Mother Nature -- such a dynamic force really defies prediction. In my experience, predictions of Mother Nature and with the markets tend to lead to misery.

Economics are another story. Here I feel a little more comfortable about what the dismal science is saying regarding the prospects for 2013. The most recent read of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index shows the eighth consecutive reading below zero -- not good. The index is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity drawn from four categories of data: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing; and 4) sales, orders and inventories. Of the 85 variables measured, 54 of them made negative contributions. While one piece of data does not make a prediction, I take the CFNA index seriously because it's so broadly based.

For investors, it's important to act on facts and not on feelings. Feelings can enter the picture when there is uncertainty regarding an outcome, and unfortunately there are an unending string of uncertainties to distract us: First it was Europe . . . Then it was the importance of initiating a QE III strategy . . . then it was Europe . . . then it was the impending failure of QE III . . . now it's the fallout from riding merrily over the "fiscal cliff."

Take Action

But the weakening of a broad base of economic indicators over the past eight months are the facts and I believe investors who heed them will be prepared for at least an economic slowdown at best during 2013 or and a recession at worst. Armed with this knowledge, what should investors do?
1 of 2

Check Out Our Best Services for Investors

Action Alerts PLUS

Portfolio Manager Jim Cramer and Director of Research Jack Mohr reveal their investment tactics while giving advanced notice before every trade.

Product Features:
  • $2.5+ million portfolio
  • Large-cap and dividend focus
  • Intraday trade alerts from Cramer
Quant Ratings

Access the tool that DOMINATES the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500.

Product Features:
  • Buy, hold, or sell recommendations for over 4,300 stocks
  • Unlimited research reports on your favorite stocks
  • A custom stock screener
Stocks Under $10

David Peltier uncovers low dollar stocks with serious upside potential that are flying under Wall Street's radar.

Product Features:
  • Model portfolio
  • Stocks trading below $10
  • Intraday trade alerts
14-Days Free
Only $9.95
14-Days Free
Dividend Stock Advisor

David Peltier identifies the best of breed dividend stocks that will pay a reliable AND significant income stream.

Product Features:
  • Diversified model portfolio of dividend stocks
  • Updates with exact steps to take - BUY, HOLD, SELL
Trifecta Stocks

Every recommendation goes through 3 layers of intense scrutiny—quantitative, fundamental and technical analysis—to maximize profit potential and minimize risk.

Product Features:
  • Model Portfolio
  • Intra Day Trade alerts
  • Access to Quant Ratings
Real Money

More than 30 investing pros with skin in the game give you actionable insight and investment ideas.

Product Features:
  • Access to Jim Cramer's daily blog
  • Intraday commentary and news
  • Real-time trading forums
Only $49.95
14-Days Free
14-Days Free
AAPL $94.19 0.00%
FB $118.06 0.00%
GOOG $695.70 0.00%
TSLA $222.56 0.00%
YHOO $36.00 0.00%


Chart of I:DJI
DOW 17,651.26 -99.65 -0.56%
S&P 500 2,051.12 -12.25 -0.59%
NASDAQ 4,725.6390 -37.5850 -0.79%

Free Reports

Top Rated Stocks Top Rated Funds Top Rated ETFs