- Look for long-term mortgage rates to remain near their record lows for the first half of 2013, then rising gradually during the second half of the year, but remaining below 4 percent.
- Expect property values to continue to strengthen with most U.S. house price indexes likely rising by 2 to 3 percent in 2013.
- Household formation should step up further to a net 1.20 to 1.25 million household increase in 2013 with housing starts up around the 1 million annualized pace by the fourth quarter.
- Vacancy rates for both apartments and the single-family for-sale market could bring aggregate vacancy rates down to 2002-2003 levels as household formation outpaces new construction.
- While the refinance boom will continue into early 2013, it will be less compared to 2012 so look for single-family mortgage originations to decline by 15 percent, conversely, expect multifamily lending to rise approximately 5 percent.
December 2012 U.S. Economic And Housing Market Outlook
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