We are all familiar with the old saying, "You get what you pay for," and in this case, that is exactly what we are counting on.
We believe buy-and-hold investors could be well rewarded for taking an early interest in the mining-equipment manufacturer and services provider
(JOY - Get Report)
. Shares of Joy Global closed Tuesday's trading at $55.57. Joy is not expensive when looking at its price-to-earnings ratio, as it currently trades at about 8x consensus fiscal 2013 earnings expectations of $6.73. This is well below its historical (past five years) price-to-earnings ratio of 14x. The stock deserves its low multiple today.
You can make money on this stock in two ways. As the Chinese economy, the domestic economy and the global economy improve (in that order of importance), we expect Joy's stock price to appreciate, as the company's earnings should grow at a faster rate, making the earnings rise (and the E in the P/E multiple increase). We also expect the multiple at which the stock trades to approach historical norms (meaning the multiplier would increase as well). Given the right conditions, Joy Global offers robust upside.
Joy Global is a worldwide leader in high-productivity mining. The company manufactures and markets original equipment and aftermarket parts and services for the mining industries through both its surface and underground mining business units. Coal as an end-market represents about 75% of sales for Joy Global. Investors have correctly tied the company's near-term fortunes to the strength of economic growth out of China. China is the world's largest consumer of electricity, and in both China and India, coal continues to be the commodity of choice to fuel electricity plants.
As China goes, so goes Joy Global. China produces more than 50% of the world's coal. Even though China accounts for only about 11% of Joy's sales, the company's other regions are helped or hindered by the strength (or lack thereof) of the economy in China. Interestingly, China accounts for 63% of the worldwide coal-fired power capacity that is either planned or under construction, and India represents 20%. This is why Joy Global is expecting its revenue from China to double by 2017 and why it points to a resumption of demand. The question of a rebound related to Joy's stock is a matter of when, not if.