You want an analog? For the Action Alerts PLUS charitable trust, we have been buying KeyCorp (KEY), a major Midwest lender that has been pummeled pretty much daily by the fiscal-cliff discussion. Just a few short months ago, it was at $9 and change on the strength of better-than-expected earnings.
Since the cliff discussion, though, it has been sliding down a little almost every day. It is now under $8. At a certain point, this stock is going to have its Santander moment. I can tell from the trading of it that it's not going to happen yet. There are sellers everywhere, and the only thing they have going for them is fear of jumping off the cliff, but the "only" is all that matters.
We have been buying it down because we don't know when the cliff-jump is "in" the stock, but it will be before we go over the cliff, if we do go over, and the worst has been prepared for.
I think that the stocks in the financial sector are acting hideously, and KeyCorp may very well be the worst of them. It has been a terrible investment, just like Santander was. Until things turn. And then we will look back and say, what were we thinking? Why didn't we buy?