NEW YORK ( TheStreet --
Jim, we have been talking about the fiscal cliff for a couple of weeks now.
And we've got probably a few more weeks to talk about it, but now we're starting to hear people saying, "You know what? It's been overhyped. It's not that big of a deal." And I guess now it's a point for us to step back and say, "You know, are we overhyping this, or is this a real concern? We really do need to let people know."
Right. Well our own Doug Kass was interviewed in an amazing article this morning in the
New York Times
(NYT - Get Report)
, and Doug feel adamant that we're maybe overblowing it, here's my issue.
And Barry Ritholtz.
The Big Picture
, he thinks it's getting overblown.
I think it's really not overblown, and I'll tell you why. By the way, the market says we'll have a deal. I mean, I want to distinguish two things. One, is will there be a deal ultimately, okay, versus no deal? Ultimately if there's a deal then we'll be fine.
Like the game show
Deal or No Deal
Yeah, or no deal. Yeah. And it is a Howie Mandel. Ultimately we'll do fine. But if we don't the spending cuts are pretty harsh. The job loss is very meaningful, and for our point of view, as people who talk about stocks, it's very different from what Doug talks about. When companies start reporting, if we have not solved the fiscal cliff, why not take things down? I mean put yourself in the head of the CEOs who talk. The vast majority of CEOs are Republican or Democratic. They want the fiscal cliff resolved. If it's not resolved, it's really difficult to say that the numbers will hold up as well as if they are, and it's also easier to lay off people.
I mean because if you believe, as is the congressional budget office, that a recession is probably likely, why would maintain the same level of employment that you have when we're not having a recession? You're going to have to radically refigure. So yes, if we get a deal, ultimately December/January, it will be good. Although AMT very hard to roll back. But if we don't get a deal, I think it's kind of silly to say that there won't be any economic impact of any sort. It's too big.