But let's assume that the increased taxes on dividends are here to stay, for those making more than $250,000. If that is the case, I'd expect ceasing of the proliferation of cash dividends that we've experienced since rates were lowered. In that case, the more efficient way for companies to return capital to shareholders will be via stock buybacks. Investors can choose to sell their shares, or not, and pay capital gains tax rates.
I've long argued that cash dividends don't theoretically make a lot of sense; in essence they are a waste of capital. Here's why: Company A pays taxes on its earnings then distributes a portion of those earnings to shareholders in the form of cash dividends. Shareholders then pay taxes on those dividends.
In essence, Company A's earnings are taxed twice; once at the corporate level, then again at the shareholder level. Through the payment of dividends, more capital is "wasted" because some of it flows to the government in the form of taxes.
The problem with the above argument is that it fails to consider the fact that many investors love dividends; it's the old "bird in the hand" argument.
At a 15% tax rate, investors loved dividends even more. But I suspect that for those facing much higher tax rates, keeping less of what is paid in dividends will now take a different view. So will companies.
The problem with new laws and regulations is that they often look great in theory to the bureaucrats who design them, but they fail in practice.
I wonder how much revenue that the new tax laws will actually raise as it applies to dividends. Investors will find alternatives; companies will make adjustments. The lawmakers will be stunned when new revenue falls short of projections.
At the time of publication the author held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned.
This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.