Kass: Don't Believe the Hype
By Doug Kass 12/03/12 - 06:00 AM EST
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This column originally appeared on Real Money Pro at 8:53 a.m. EST on Nov. 30.
NEW YORK (Real Money) --
"Disaster has a way of not happening." -- Byron Wien, Vice Chairman of Blackstone Advisory PartnersRecently, I opined that not only are the fiscal cliff fears overblown but so are the economic, political, geopolitical and tax fears overblown. Nevertheless, the earnings cliff fears (which will ultimately limit Mr. Market's upside) are not overblown. In understanding why we will likely see a timely fiscal cliff compromise, it is essential to also go back to the November election, in which the message was one of moderation, and moderation equates to an ultimate compromise. Some market participants (and certainly the media) seem to be now incorrectly playing the last war (which took place during the budget deliberations in August 2011). By contrast, I believe that fiscal cliff fears are likely misplaced, as we are at the point of necessity, and my view is that both parties get this. Sleeves will be rolled up in the next three to four weeks, and the outcome will likely be a relatively pro-economy/pro-business compromise with multiple concessions from both sides. Compared to the budget deliberations of August 2011, this time around neither party can risk the perception of being obstructionists in the negotiations. Americans clearly have voted with their feet, and they want and prefer compromise over drama.