We used to think the " January effect" played a key role in how investors figured out investment tactics for picking up good stock-market bargains. Theoretically, at the end of the year you could buy stocks knocked down by tax-loss selling, then take benefit as the selling abated in January.
Judging by the newfound negative turn of the averages, I am wondering if we won't see a "February effect" this time around. That is, perhaps accelerated selling will knock down stocks in December as investors endeavor to unload before any raise in capital-gains or dividend taxes -- and then again in January as we now acknowledge the unlikely nature of a deal by year-end.
Yes, business leaders are in Washington to talk about a deal. But they don't get a vote on this issue. Yes, President Obama is taking it to the people, but they don't vote on this, either. Yes he's going on Twitter to talk about the consequences, but the Twitter followers also won't vote on this.
The voters are in Congress, and we are seeing that something that was supposed to be totally draconian -- unpalatable increases in tax rates and cuts in spending -- may not be that unpalatable at all. That's because the politicians believe their careers will be more negatively impacted by compromising than by standing steadfast and allowing the U.S. to go over the cliff on principle.I get this. If you believe entitlements should never be cut, then you are going to send us over the cliff. If you believe taxes should never be raised, you are going to send us over the cliff. If you believe your House or Senate seat is going to be jeopardized by cutting entitlements or boosting taxes, what incentive do you have for compromise? It is both rational and opportunistic not to compromise? Are those who try to compromise, in this regard, sinking below principle, breaking their word or going back on why they were voted in? I will go one step further. The potential loss of jobs and higher mandated taxes may be a very small price to pay for standing fast on your principles -- and, for many, rising above the fray is simply a total betrayal to the electorate.