Gold Fields Ltd.
I'll be the first to say that there are a lot of macro reasons to like gold. From the money presses paying for QE3 to the threats of the fiscal cliff, gold has a lot going for it this fall. But that's cold comfort to shareholders in Gold Fields Ltd. (GFI) right now.
Shares of the $9 billion South African gold miner have dropped more than 20% this year, dragged lower by production challenges and labor problems at the firm's mines. Now, with a descending triangle forming in shares, there's more potential downside in this stock. The descending triangle is formed by horizontal support under shares (in this case at $11.50) and downtrending resistance to the upside. As shares bounce in between those two key technical levels, they're getting squeezed closer and closer to a breakdown below support -- that's when it makes sense to be a seller.
So far this year, Gold Fields has been a poor proxy for gold -- and the setup in shares means that it's likely to continue to be one into 2013. Short sellers have a downside opportunity here on the breakdown below $11.50, and shareholders would be wise to go after an alternative mining name for Q4. If you bet against GFI, keep a tight stop.
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