Cook may squawk at people who said iPad mini would fail. I know I will. And we should. As a product, mini was a can't miss as long as Apple didn't cut corners on quality or price. To Cook's credit, it did not skimp.
But it will be like winning the ALCS or the NFC Championship. Spray some champagne on the naked guy at the locker next to you and get ready for what really matters. Apple's fate gets sealed with the launch of Apple TV, whenever that will be.
Wilkinson lays out a pretty objective case on the prospects of Apple TV (link at the beginning of this article). He sets up a best-case scenario where everything Apple wants and needs to happen to produce something even close to as disruptive as iPod, iPhone and iPad happens. You can tell by his early admission and subsequent tone that the Asbury Park resident is skeptical. People from Springsteen country are smart!
I'm on the record as bearish Apple TV.It's not that I don't think it will be a good product. It will be. Everything Apple does is good. I just don't see any way it can be groundbreaking unless Tim Cook can twist Hollywood's arm the way Steve Jobs did the music industry's. No matter how poor Apple's competition is across spaces, no matter how many units its iconic products continue to sell, the time to be bearish will come when we know once and for all that the next big thing isn't certain to come. For now, Apple deserves the benefit of the doubt. Investors should give the company that much and continue to buy its stock for the foreseeable future. Follow @rocco_thestreet