NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- The big-three tech-related names outran their 12-month projected gains in strong Black Friday trading, and two of the three were downgraded this morning to hold from buy according to www.ValuEngine.com.
The ValuEngine valuation model calculates a stock's fair value, the price at which a stock should trade at based on its fundamental economic data as if the market were completely rational and efficient. This calculation considers many time-sensitive variables, such as a stock's EPS growth, analyst estimates and consensus, and the interest rate environment. If any of the variables change, fair value changes overnight.
The ValuEngine forecast model, which determines a stock's rating, predicts what a stock's price will be at a specified future time period given current market conditions. The forecast model builds upon the output of the stock valuation model and combines this data with econometric and simulation techniques to output target prices for one, three, and six-month and one, two, and three-year time horizons.
The forecast model uses distinct algorithms for each of the six forecast time horizons for every industry. It considers short-term price reversals, intermediate-term momentum continuation, and long-term price reversals. As with our stock valuation model, parameters are updated overnight. The one-year price target is used to set the stock ratings.To have a buy rating according to ValuEngine a stock must have a projected 12-month gain of 5% to 12%. A stock projected to gain 12% or more over the next 12 months is rated a strong buy. A hold rating is a projected loss or gain between negative 5% and 5%. A sell rating is a projected loss of 5% to 12%, and a strong sell is a projected loss of 12% or more.
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