Bank of America to Fall Off Cliff, Then Bounce: Analyst

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Investors who are looking for a recovery play may have an excellent opportunity to scoop up shares of Bank of America (BAC) on the cheap, as the "Fiscal Cliff" drama continues in Washington.

As nearly all of our readers know by now, the federal tax cuts extended by President Obama as part of a deal with Republicans in Congress in August 2011 will expire at the end of the year, without a new deal. Along with the tax increases, the Budget Control Act of 2011 requires a large cut in federal spending, in an effort to reduce the annual federal budget deficit by $1.2 trillion over 10 years. Many economists believe that "falling off the fiscal cliff" at this stage of a slow economic recovery would cause the U.S. economy to slip back into recession.

Guggenheim Securities analyst Marty Mosby on Monday said in a "Tactical Trading Sell" report that Bank of America "is one of the leading candidates for a significant correction if the pressure on the U.S. economy from the Fiscal Cliffs begins to build."

Mosby actually rates Bank of America a "Buy," with a $12 price target, which would represent 21% upside, however, the rating and the target have 12-month outlooks, while Mosby believes "BAC could trade below $8 over the next three months if it becomes apparent that the U.S. economy is about to be pushed over several of the upcoming Fiscal Cliffs."

The analyst's short-term trading range for the next three months for Bank of America is from $7 to $8 a share, "based on a 60% price to current tangible book value multiple. BAC currently trades at 73% of current tangible book value." Mosby said that "the risks to this tactical trading call are twofold: Washington politicians work together to craft the 'Grand Bargain,' avoiding the upcoming Fiscal Cliffs, or the economy builds up enough momentum to absorb the unfavorable impacts of higher taxes and spending cuts and still keep growing."

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