OTTAWA, Nov. 22, 2012 /CNW/ - Export Development Canada's (EDC) forecast for Ontario's export growth calls for a 3 per cent gain in 2013 after recording a strong 7 per cent gain this year.
"While slower growth in auto production and weaker commodity prices will restrain Ontario's exports overall in 2013, the weak headline growth masks a stronger underlying trend across a number of other key industries in Ontario," said Peter Hall, Chief Economist, EDC.
Ontario's exports depend on the industrial goods, motor vehicle and the machinery/equipment sectors, which together account for more than 82 per cent of the province's total international sales.
Ontario's motor vehicle sector accounts for more than 32 per cent of the province's total exports, and is forecast to eke out 2 per cent growth next year after a strong 14 per cent gain in 2012."Auto production will level off next year following the post-tsunami ramp-up at Toyota and Honda," said Hall. "Underlying growth will be spurred by production of a new Lexus model in Cambridge and a steady rise in U.S. vehicle sales. Ontario's ability to capture U.S. sales will be limited by a reduced presence of Ford and GM in the province." The industrial goods sector generates over 37 per cent of the province's total exports. EDC expects industrial goods exports to hold steady at 2 per cent growth next year after a 3 per cent gain this year. "Weak metal prices are restraining the province's industrial goods exports. Base metal prices are generally much weaker than year-ago levels, and are expected to remain softer through 2013, and precious metals won't fare much better," said Hall.