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NEW YORK (
JPMorgan Chase(JPM - Get Report),
Goldman Sachs(GS - Get Report),
Morgan Stanley(MS - Get Report) ,
Bank of America(BAC - Get Report) and
Citigroup(C - Get Report) will see reduced trading revenues due to investor concerns about the impending "
fiscal cliff" of across the board cuts that will kick in if Congress cannot reach a deal on the U.S. budget , according to a Deutsche Bank report published Tuesday.
"We worry both issuance and trading volumes could slow into year end given seasonal factors and fiscal cliff uncertainty," writes Deutsche Bank analyst Matt O'Connor. He estimates revenues in fixed income, currencies and commodities could fall 15-20% versus the third quarter, compared to his previous estimate of a 10% decline.
Equity issuance is also set to decline by about 20%, according to O'Connor, though he argues third quarter numbers were boosted by "a large low margin deal," which he does not name.
O'Connor reduced his Bank of America fourth quarter profit estimate to 16 cents per share from 18 cents versus the First Call consensus target of a 20 cent profit. For Citigroup, he brought his estimate down to 91 cents from $1.00 compared to a $1.05 consensus. He brought his Goldman Sachs estimate down to $3.85 ($3.20 adjusting for a one time gain) versus his earlier $3.53 estimate, which did not count the gain. The consensus is at $3.35. O'Connor's estimate for JPMorgan came down to $1.22, in line with the consensus target, from a prior $1.25. He now sees Morgan Stanley earning 25 cents per share versus a prior 28 cents and a 37 cent consensus.
Written by Dan Freed in New York.