Since QE3, Treasuries Outperformed Stocks and Commodities
SPY (139.13): At Friday's close SPY was down 8.6% since Sept. 14, and after Monday's strong rally is still down 6.5% since Sept. 14. Booking profits in TLT and buying SPY could have been a buy-and-trade strategy versus my annual pivot at 135.74 on SPY. My weekly and annual pivots are 136.40 and 135.75 with my monthly risky level at 141.59. Monday's close was above the 200-day simple moving average at 138.45.
GLD (167.87): At Friday's close GLD was down 3.8% since Sept. 14, and after Monday's rebound was still down 2.6% since Sept. 14, and below its 50-day simple moving average at 168.96. Bonds thus outperformed gold. Weekly and monthly value levels are 163.52 and 159.51 with my semiannual pivot at 165.00 and my quarterly risky levels at 178.71 and 182.25.
XLE (70.51): At Friday's close XLE was down 12.2% since Sept. 14, and after Monday's strong rally for crude oil was still down 9.7%. Monday's close for XLE was just above the 200-day SMA at 70.42. Bonds also outperformed oil since QE3 was announced. My weekly and monthly value levels are 68.40 and 65.45 with the 50-day simple moving average at 72.81.
My conclusion is that as long as the Federal Reserve continues its quantitative easing programs U.S. Treasury yields should remain near record lows set in 2012. While a buy-and-hold strategy may not be prudent now, you can still have buy-and-trade strategies timing the volatility in "risk off" versus "risk on" trading opportunities.At the time of publication the author held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned. Follow @Suttmeier This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.
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