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Since QE3, Treasuries Outperformed Stocks and Commodities

SPY (139.13): At Friday's close SPY was down 8.6% since Sept. 14, and after Monday's strong rally is still down 6.5% since Sept. 14. Booking profits in TLT and buying SPY could have been a buy-and-trade strategy versus my annual pivot at 135.74 on SPY. My weekly and annual pivots are 136.40 and 135.75 with my monthly risky level at 141.59. Monday's close was above the 200-day simple moving average at 138.45.

GLD (167.87): At Friday's close GLD was down 3.8% since Sept. 14, and after Monday's rebound was still down 2.6% since Sept. 14, and below its 50-day simple moving average at 168.96. Bonds thus outperformed gold. Weekly and monthly value levels are 163.52 and 159.51 with my semiannual pivot at 165.00 and my quarterly risky levels at 178.71 and 182.25.

XLE (70.51): At Friday's close XLE was down 12.2% since Sept. 14, and after Monday's strong rally for crude oil was still down 9.7%. Monday's close for XLE was just above the 200-day SMA at 70.42. Bonds also outperformed oil since QE3 was announced. My weekly and monthly value levels are 68.40 and 65.45 with the 50-day simple moving average at 72.81.

My conclusion is that as long as the Federal Reserve continues its quantitative easing programs U.S. Treasury yields should remain near record lows set in 2012. While a buy-and-hold strategy may not be prudent now, you can still have buy-and-trade strategies timing the volatility in "risk off" versus "risk on" trading opportunities.

At the time of publication the author held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned.

This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.
>>> On Tuesday, November 20 at 6pm ET, TheStreet will host a Trade Credit Insurance webinar with Todd Lynady, Senior Underwriter for Zurich in North America and Mike DeLuca, Senior Partner of One Source. Register now.

Richard Suttmeier has an engineering degree from Georgia Tech and a master of science from Brooklyn Poly. He began his career in the financial services industry in 1972 trading U.S. Treasury securities in the primary dealer community. In 1981 he formed the Government Bond Department at LF Rothschild and helped establish that firm as a primary dealer in 1986. Richard began writing market research in 1984 and held positions as market strategist at firms such as Smith Barney, William R Hough, Joseph Stevens, and Rightside Advisors. He joined in 2008 producing newsletters covering the U.S. capital markets, and a universe of more than 7,000 stocks. Richard employs a "buy and trade" investment strategy and can be reached at
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