NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- Jim, we've got Thanksgiving on Thursday. That means the retailer selling season is here with Black Friday.
We have promotions starting Thursday night.
I was in the stores this weekend and they're packed. It's really kind of amazing that this...this is the TV Black Friday. It all involves a 60 inch TV, Costco's got it, Walmart's got it, Best Buy's got it, and they're going to give it away. They're going to lose money on every 60 inch they sell...that's the way Costco has historically brought people in...and that is the fulcrum. That's the product because it's dramatic.
It's so inexpensive versus what you have. You talk about fifteen hundred dollars all in and this is the product, and this is what's going to draw people to stores, and this is what people are going to buy.
Then Apple, they're going to buy Apple products because Apple's got a full line of new updated products, and I think they're very strong. Why shouldn't people buy...I like Apple stock, I own it for Action Alerts Plus, but the problem with Apple is that you don't know...well you don't know what they have for 2013. They haven't unveiled iTV, but Apple products, big-screen TVs, these are it. These are going to be gigantic for Christmas, I think, gigantic.
Okay, now the NRF is saying that sales are going to increase 4.1 percent this year, this holiday season. That's a little bit less than last year.
Well the fiscal cliff. That goes to five percent if you resolve the fiscal cliff. Otherwise you've got to really be worried, and you've got to husband your cash, and you should be on the sidelines. I mean, I'm surprised that so many people are shopping given...a lot of people don't understand the issue. I mean today was the
first day on the Today Show
that we really...the Today Show being one of the biggest mass audiences in the world, that we actually addressed the fiscal cliff.
So it's going to seep into peoples' consciousness, yet you have to hope that it's resolved before the 10 days before Christmas when there's still a lot of shopping.
You mentioned Costco, Apple, but what about online retailers?
Amazon's good. I've been behind Amazon for a long time, but the problem with that is that Amazon is one of those companies that is a faith company because it sells at such a huge price-earnings multiple, and this has been the year where you've been really chastened if you've recommended high-multiple stock.
So I like Amazon very much, but I think you have to do it deep-in-the-money calls to be able to cut off your downside far out.