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Don't Panic, Buy Smart With Deere and Navistar

Take Navistar International (NAV - Get Report) for example, which by coincidence has a symbol which is used as an abbreviation for the term "net asset value." Does NAV have some locked up NAV waiting to be unveiled?

It's clear this leading manufacturer of commercial trucks, buses, RVs, defense vehicles and engines, which is selling closer to its 52-week low of $18.17, has some wealthy insiders and activists who think its shares are well worth owning.

Director Mark Rachesky purchased 1,598,000 shares on Oct. 24 at $18.75 per share. This brings his jaw-dropping total position in the stock to more than 10.8 million shares. If the stock moves up to $20 this means Rachesky will directly or indirectly own $216 million worth of NAV shares. Now that's what I call conviction!

Then on Oct. 25, world-famous activist Carl Icahn bought almost 1,595,000 shares at the same price. That's a transaction worth $29.9 million and added to what he owned already, bringing his total owned to nearly 12 million shares!

In fact, 38% of the outstanding shares of NAV are now owned by insiders. Institutions are onboard NAV as well. Franklin Resources (BEN) alone owns almost 19% of the outstanding shares.

That means BEN own more than 12.9 million shares. If you're good with math you know that represents over $258 million when the share price reaches $20. On Thursday, Nov. 15 NAV closed at $19.76.

NAV will report their latest quarterly earnings-per-share results on Dec. 17. Analysts are estimating a year-over-year loss of $1.08, compared to an EPS gain of $3.37 gain in the year ago quarter. The company has sales growth problems too, with quarterly revenue estimated to be down over 26% from the same quarter a year ago.

So why would anyone in their right mind buy NAV? When company insiders have so much at stake and low-pain-tolerance activist investors like Carl Icahn are also heavily invested in the company, some positive announcements and changes are probably forthcoming.

Icahn has been known for breaking up companies or forcing companies to sell off their most lucrative parts, like he's done recently with Chesapeake Energy (CHK).

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