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Market And Product Forecasts: Melanoma - Yervoy Will Continue To Dominate As New Approvals Struggle To Compete

MARKET DEFINITION •Market definition for melanoma

•Forecast methodology and assumptions - Methodology flow

- Patent expiries

- New product launches

•Additional forecast methodology



AND CONTEXT•Melanoma therapies included in this report

•Current and future market dynamics overview - The branded melanoma market will experience a dramatic increase in sales over the forecast period

- Market entry of new drugs will dramatically increase the value of the branded melanoma market

- The commercial value of pipeline therapies will not surpass the total value of current marketed therapies

- New product launches will mostly impact the metastatic melanoma setting

- The US will remain the most lucrative market over the forecast period

- The overall value of branded melanoma therapies will increase across the five major EU markets

PRODUCT FORECASTS•Molecule dynamics - Yervoy will continue to dominate the melanoma market over the forecast period

•Yervoy (ipilimumab; Bristol-Myers Squibb) - Forecast assumptions

- Yervoy forecast 2012–21

•Zelboraf (vemurafenib; Roche/Daiichi Sankyo) - Forecast assumptions - Zelboraf forecast 2012–21

•Abraxane (albumin-bound paclitaxel; Celgene) - Forecast assumptions

- Abraxane forecast 2012–21

•Allovectin-7 (velimogene aliplasmid; Vical) - Forecast assumptions - Allovectin-7 forecast 2012–21

•Dabrafenib (GSK-2118436; GlaxoSmithKline) - Forecast assumptions

- Dabrafenib forecast 2012–21

•MAGE-A3 ASCI (astuprotimut-r; GlaxoSmithKline) - Forecast assumptions - MAGE-A3 ASCI forecast 2012–21

•OncoVEX GM-CSF (talimogene laherparepvec; Amgen) - Forecast assumptions

- OncoVEX forecast 2012–21

•POL-103A (Polynoma/CK Life Sciences) - Forecast assumptions - POL-103A forecast 2012–21

•Trametinib (GSK-1120212; GlaxoSmithKline) - Forecast assumptions

- Trametinib forecast 2012–21 BIBLIOGRAPHY

•Journal papers•Websites APPENDIX

•Forecast methodology - Volume and value forecast methodology- Price and compliance assumptions TABLES

•Table: Summary of therapeutic classes in melanoma by ATC code, 2012•Table: Patent expiry dates for key marketed brands in melanoma, 2012•Table: Estimated launch dates for key late-stage pipeline products in melanoma, 2012–21•Table: Drugs included in melanoma market and product forecasts, 2012–21•Table: Melanoma drug sales in the US and five major EU markets ($m), 2012–21•Table: Melanoma drug sales in the US ($m), 2012–21•Table: Melanoma molecule sales in the five major EU markets ($m), 2012–21•Table: Key melanoma drug sales in the US and five major EU markets, 2012 and 2021•Table: Yervoy sales, by country ($m), 2012–21•Table: Yervoy patients, by country, 2012–21•Table: Zelboraf sales, by country ($m), 2012–21•Table: Zelboraf patients, by country, 2012–21•Table: Abraxane sales, by country ($m), 2012–21•Table: Abraxane patients, by country, 2012–21•Table: Allovectin-7 sales, by country ($m), 2012–21•Table: Allovectin-7 patients, by country, 2012–21•Table: Dabrafenib sales, by country ($m), 2012–21•Table: Dabrafenib patients, by country, 2012–21•Table: MAGE-A3 ASCI sales, by country ($m), 2012–21•Table: MAGE-A3 ASCI patients, by country, 2012–21•Table: OncoVEX GM-CSF sales, by country ($m), 2012–21•Table: OncoVEX GM-CSF patients, by country, 2012–21•Table: POL-103A sales, by country ($m), 2012–21•Table: POL-103A patients, by country, 2012–21•Table: Trametinib sales, by country ($m), 2012–21•Table: Trametinib patients, by country, 2012–21•Table: Price sources and calculations, by country, 2012•Table: Exchange rates used for calculating prices, 2012 FIGURES

•Figure: Patient-based forecast methodology for melanoma, 2012•Figure: Melanoma market forecast across the US and five major EU markets, by country ($m), 2012–21•Figure: Melanoma sales in the US and five major EU markets, by class ($m), 2012–21•Figure: Estimated approval/launch dates of key melanoma therapies, 2012–21•Figure: Branded melanoma market value in the US, by drug class ($m), 2012–21•Figure: Branded melanoma market value in the five major EU markets, by drug class ($m), 2012–21•Figure: Key branded melanoma drug sales, 2012–21•Figure: Yervoy sales, by country ($m), 2012–21•Figure: Zelboraf sales, by country ($m), 2012–21•Figure: Abraxane sales, by country ($m), 2012–21•Figure: Allovectin-7 sales, by country ($m), 2012–21•Figure: Dabrafenib sales, by country ($m), 2012–21•Figure: MAGE-A3 ASCI sales, by country ($m), 2012–21•Figure: OncoVEX GM-CSF sales, by country ($m), 2012–21•Figure: POL-103A sales, by country ($m), 2012–21•Figure: Trametinib sales, by country ($m), 2012–21

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