As an investment manager, I don't worship at the altar of price momentum -- and I don't believe you should either -- rather, I see the risk/reward of stock prices at any point in time as an opportunity to buy, sell or sell short. Again, my decisions are based on assessing upside/downside through fundamental analysis.
What is not overblown are the fears of an earnings cliff that will likely limit the market's upside, though above current levels, over the balance of the year. This potential cliff we will monitor over the near term and into early 2013.
A successful solution to our economic challenges could lead to an upgrade in economic growth and profits.
I am a buyer of the market because the risk/reward ratio, based on my macroeconomic and microeconomic analysis, supports a better upside than downside to the markets -- right now.Buying into fear and lower prices is not for everyone -- as I write, the decline in S&P futures has halved to -6 handles -- it takes those who are really committed and, to some degree, emotionless. But never lose sight that, to long-term investors, fear is the friend of the rational buyer.
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