This column originally appeared on Real Money Pro at 7:59 a.m. EST on Nov. 13.
NEW YORK (Real Money) --
"Price is what you pay, value is what you get."As I wrote yesterday, from my perch the fears of the economic, political, geopolitical, fiscal and tax (capital gains and dividends) cliffs are overblown. I recognize my analysis yields a contrary view of buying when many are selling today, when the influential media and other talking heads are fearful and, at times, even hyperbolic. But remember the general optimism as the S&P 500 breached 1480 on the upside a few months ago and the confidence on the part of strategists that a performance chase would yield 1500-plus on the index by year-end that would carry through to continued strength in 2013? Or the optimism when Apple (AAPL) rose above $700 a share and the pushback I received when I wrote a negative assessment of the company's shares? It is funny how we don't hear (and receive mea culpas) from those observers that were so glib and confident in their optimism back then only to be so wrong now. (By contrast, I have promised and always admit my own mistakes.) They will still have their platforms and still haven't admitted that they were wrong and will not reimburse you for your losses if you have followed them. These examples above are why you should do your own homework, ignore the confident musings of talking heads -- and that includes me! -- and recognize that only you are accountable for your investment performance. From my perch, analysis trumps emotion and provides opportunity (as long as that analysis proves to be solid). With better clarity of the above, as discussed in my lengthy series on Monday, I have begun to add to my net long exposure, within reason -- it now stands at about 40% before my outsized bond short position. I am far more certain that an investing opportunity is being afforded long-term investors in the recent meltdown: While I believe we also face a near-term trading opportunity ahead, I am less certain of its immediacy. The charts certainly speak brokedown palace, but, as you all know, I view charts as a history lesson of what happened in the past not as providing a course of prices in the future.
-- Warren Buffett
Select the service that is right for you!COMPARE ALL SERVICES
- $2.5+ million portfolio
- Large-cap and dividend focus
- Intraday trade alerts from Cramer
- Weekly roundups
Access the tool that DOMINATES the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500.
- Buy, hold, or sell recommendations for over 4,300 stocks
- Unlimited research reports on your favorite stocks
- A custom stock screener
- Upgrade/downgrade alerts
- Diversified model portfolio of dividend stocks
- Alerts when market news affect the portfolio
- Bi-weekly updates with exact steps to take - BUY, HOLD, SELL
- Real Money + Doug Kass Plus 15 more Wall Street Pros
- Intraday commentary & news
- Ultra-actionable trading ideas
- 100+ monthly options trading ideas
- Actionable options commentary & news
- Real-time trading community
- Options TV