India will be the fastest-growing market for US exports in the future, with demand increasingly driven by the country’s emerging middle class, according to a new report released today by HSBC Commercial Banking. Exports to India are set to expand at an average rate of 12% a year between 2016 and 2020, and will grow at a rate close to 10% a year over the period of 2021 to 2030, HSBC also reported.
The HSBC Global Connections report includes the HSBC Trade Forecast, which examines global trade trends during the next 5, 10 and 15 years, also finds that US export growth to Europe is expected to recover to a pace of 6% per year during the period of 2012 to 2020.
The HSBC Trade Forecast, produced in association with Oxford Economics, examines bilateral trade corridors between 23 major trading nations and further reveals:
- India and China will be joined by emerging trading nations including Vietnam, Indonesia, Egypt, Turkey, Mexico and Poland to record significant trade growth in the next three years.
- By 2020, HSBC expects that forward-thinking companies worldwide will have developed multiple trade corridors and partnerships, created effective networked supply chains, and tightened efficiency in their operations as a result.
- Echoing the US findings, India represents the fastest growing import or export partner (or both) between 2013-15 or 2016-2020 for the 23 markets examined globally by HSBC.
- US exports will increasingly find their way to rapidly growing consumer markets in developing economies, as growth prospects for the industrialized nations remain subdued.
- Over the medium term, the value of US goods exports destined for the economies of Asia (excluding Japan) is forecast to rise at an average annual rate of 8% throughout the period 2021-2030.
- Vietnam is expected to record double digit annualized trade growth throughout the forecast period of 2012-30 and is expected to become an increasingly important source of US imports.
TCI Reveals Steady Confidence About Expected Trade Volumes Over Next Six MonthsIn the shorter-term, the companion HSBC Trade Confidence Index (TCI) conducted twice a year for HSBC by TNS, finds US-based importers and exporters are still maintaining a steady confidence about their expected trade volumes during the next six months. Nearly half (48%) of US importers and exporters foresee their trade volumes increasing. And while the outlook has weakened a little compared to six months ago, 65% of US businesses do anticipate the global economy to remain at current levels or grow in the near future. In total, 86% say their trade business will either grow or hold at current levels over the next six months. According to 40% of those surveyed, any obstacles to growth are likely to be related to costs of shipping, logistics and storage. In another positive trend, US traders also say they have more confidence in the financial health of their business partners.
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