Updated with new information.
(GILD - Get Report) has drawn first blood from
(ABT - Get Report) (but just barely) in the battle for hepatitis C pill supremacy.
Twelve weeks of treatment with two Gilead drugs plus the immune system booster ribavirin yielded an interim cure rate of 100% in treatment-naive hepatitis C patients.
A 12-week regimen consisting of three Abbott drugs plus ribavirin demonstrated a final cure rate of 97% of treatment-naive hepatitis C patients and 93% of "null" responders -- the hardest-to-treat patients because they've failed previous therapy.
The score so far: Gilead 100%, Abbott 97%. Close, but Gilead wins, which means shares are likely to move higher when trading opens Monday.
The Gilead result is the "best case" scenario, said ISI Group analyst Mark Schoenebaum in an email to clients.
In a Monday note to clients, Jefferies analyst Thomas Wei said, "These data make us more confident in Gilead winning a dominant position among
regimens for hepatitis C, with comparable cure rates, fewer side effects and better convenience relative to the Abbott regimen."
Gilead shares closed Friday at $65.01.
The Abbott and Gilead regimens were not tested against each other in a single study, so declaring a winner and a loser isn't scientific or fair, necessarily. It's important, too, to note that Abbott's phase II study is larger and reported final cure rates after 12 weeks of follow-up. Gilead's phase II study enrolled fewer patients and cure rates are being reported after only four weeks of follow-up.
Wall Street investors are comparing the two sets of results directly against each other, nonetheless.
Hepatitis C researchers, with investors tagging along, are gathering in Boston at the Liver Meeting, the annual conference sponsored by the American Association for the Study of Liver Disease. The most important data presentations over the next four days will focus on the race to develop new pills, which when used in various combinations, can replace the traditional injections long required to treat and cure hepatitis C.
The hepatitis C drug treatment market could grow to as much as $20 billion, some estimates claim, if more people with the viral liver disease seek cures with simpler and more effective all-oral therapies.
The new Abbott data announced Saturday come from a large, phase IIb study known as "AVIATOR" that was designed to assess the efficacy and safety of various combinations of oral hepatitis drugs in treatment-naive, genotype 1 hepatitis C patients as well as hard-to-treat null responders.