Since I expressed my initial concerns in late September, Apple's shares have fallen by $165.
The shares now stand at $536, and I am buying.
Now let me explain why I have just purchased shares in Apple (my answers correspond to the list of concerns listed at the beginning of this column):
- As expressed in today's opening missive and in my writings over the last few weeks, I am now less concerned about a global economic slowdown than most.
- Investors are no longer smug and have grown increasingly (and arguably fully) aware of the challenges of the delivery of current and future new products.
- Apple's shares are no longer the beneficiary of fund flows -- just the opposite has been occurring, which has materially pressured the shares down to attractive levels.
- At $700, Mr. Apple Orchard -- er -- Mr. Market was likely imputing a 2013 new "wow" product (Apple TV?). At current prices, the next "wow" product has been discounted away, and the company's completely refreshed product line (no mean feat in such a short time frame, and if supply comes in line, CEO Tim Cook's main goal for 2013) should be plenty enough new stuff to once again propel earnings throughout 2013. Also, here is a link to AppleInsider, which hints about a possible new product associated with the automotive industry.
- At $536 a share, a discounted dividend model implies that the future growth rate in profits at Apple will be only about 5%. This is too low -- Apple's share price decline has likely now overly discounted most (if not all) of my concerns.
At the time of publication, Kass was long Apple.
Originally published on Friday, Nov. 9 at 7:14 a.m. EDT.
Prospects for China soft landing and global growth improve.
October Chinese consumer inflation rose by only 1.7% year over year compared to estimates of 1.9% and 1.9% in September.
This was the slowest rise in almost three years, as food inflation slowed dramatically to only 1.8%. (September print was 2.5%.)
A low inflation rate is important as it allows the central bank the ability to ease further. That said, retail sales (up 14.5%) and industrial production (up 9.6%) accelerated in October, so no near-term moves are likely.
The low rate of consumer inflation gives the People's Bank of China the leeway to ease further, but recent data (industrial production/retail sales) accelerated last month, which allows the central bank to watch/wait and see.
In summary, the risk of a global economic cliff has receded in the last two weeks as economic data from the U.S. and China have improved, and the EU data (despite the hyperbole) have stabilized (off of low levels).
In other words, the world, it seems is not coming to an end, though it might feel like it is the case when looking at the U.S. stock market.
Technically, the market has clearly entered brokedown palace, and my next column (an update of George Lindsay's "Three Peaks and a Domed House") is sure to scare the crap of you and raise questions as to where Mr. Market will bottom.
However, if fear is the friend of the rational buyer, numerous opportunities for the long-term investor are likely developing.
Finally, with regard to the fiscal cliff, I am working on my analysis over the weekend and will come up with my conclusions in Monday's opening missive.
At the time of publication, Kass had no positions in stocks mentioned