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QE Fatigue Becomes an Epidemic

Analysis of Nymex Crude Oil ($85.00): The weekly chart for crude oil stays negative on a close Friday below the five-week MMA at $89.73. The 200-week simple moving average is a major support at $82.85 with my monthly value level at $76.96, and my annual and quarterly risky levels are $103.58 and $107.31.The 200-week SMA at $82.85 has been a magnet since mid-2009.

Analysis of the euro vs the dollar (1.2736): The weekly chart remains negative on a close today below the five-week MMA at 1.2865. My monthly value level lags at 1.2289 with semiannual and quarterly risky levels at 1.2917 and 1.3048. A stronger dollar has put pressure on U.S. stocks as expected.

Analysis of the Dow Industrial Average (12,811): The weekly chart stays negative with a close Friday below the five-week MMA at 13,265. My annual value level lags at 12,312 with a monthly pivot at 13,143 and annual and quarterly risky levels at 14,032 and 14,192.

Analysis of the Dow Transportation Average (5054): The weekly chart for the Dow Transports shifts to neutral from positive on a close today below the five-week MMA at 5063. A weekly close below my monthly pivot at 5053 indicates that Transports are vulnerable for a second bout of "QE Fatigue."

Analysis of the S&P 500 (1377.5): The weekly chart stays negative with a close Friday below the five-week MMA at 1425.7. My annual value level is 1363.2 with a monthly pivot at 1418.7, and quarterly and annual risky levels at 1513.3 and 1562.9.

Analysis of the Nasdaq (2896): The weekly chart stays negative on a close Friday below the five-week MMA at 3042. The November 2007 high is 2861.51 with my annual value level at 2698, a monthly pivot at 3028, and annual and quarterly risky levels at 3210, 3232 and 3295.

Analysis of the Russell 2000 (793.65): The weekly chart stays negative on a close Friday below the five-week MMA at 823.60. My semiannual value level is 686.25 with a monthly pivot is 807.15 and annual risky level at 836.15.

Analysis of the Semiconductor Index or SOX (368.80): The weekly chart remains negative on a close Friday below the five-week MMA at 377.69. The 200-week simple moving average is 357.53 with my monthly value level at 354.06 and the Sept. 14 high at 410.82.

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