NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- For months here on TheStreet, I brought up Steve Jobs's name.
I second-guessed many of the moves Tim Cook made upon taking over for Jobs. Everything from issuing a dividend to apologizing for MappleGate to not having a clue about how to advance Apple's living room ambitions.
Near-term: Apple must absolutely knock the snot out of the baseball when it reports its October-November-December results in January 2013. Before that, we should prepare for a relatively underwhelming quarter between last month's miss and the much-anticipated holiday report.And, more importantly:
Emotion has a fascinating way of working itself into stock investing. You're long AAPL. It's kicking rear and taking names. For perfectly understandable reasons, you're passionate about the position. The best mistake you can make is to detach yourself from the hysteria and take some profits.Even though I stand by my assertion -- the long-term bear case has not played itself out and this selling has everything to do with capital gains tax rates -- the observations I have made since Jobs's passing hold more relevancy than ever.
Because, if my long-term bearish outlook pans out and the stock follows, more than a few longs will dig their respective heels in. They will check their cost bases and claim they'll sell if AAPL falls (insert arbitrary percentage here).
However, as it falls, those profits you thought you were about to bank erode. You hold out for a rebound to recover a few bucks. The stock drops more. Before you know it, your profit pales in comparison to what it once was, you're sitting at breakeven or, worse, you're holding an on-paper loss.