NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- Investors had been flocking into utility stocks, for the dividend yield, since the stock market lows of March 2009. I became concerned about the sustainability of the uptrend for the Dow Jones Utilities since July 30, when I wrote Consider Taking Profits on Utility Stocks .
On July 30, I profiled the Utilities Select Sector SPDR (XLU), which then had a dividend yield of 3.6% versus a yield of 1.553% on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note. Today the dividend yield on XLU is 3.49% and despite the QE3 initiatives announced by the Federal Reserve on Sept.12, the yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note is up to 1.691% this morning.
Third-quarter earnings reports have not been kind to utilities stocks as the pattern for the majority of power companies has been to miss on both earnings per share and on the revenue line.
On July 30 www.ValuEngine.com showed that the utilities sector was the most overvalued of the 16 sectors by 12.9%. Today the utilities sector is 7.2% overvalued and six of the 16 sectors are more overvalued than utilities. Today I profile eight utility stocks and all are down since July 30 and are below their 200-day simple moving averages.This week we have seen the Dow Jones Utility Average (DJU) plunge below its 200-day SMA at 469.00, as shown on the chart below. Daily momentum has become oversold, but the weekly chart profile is negative. Dow utilities are down 0.5% year to date diverging from the 8.4% year to date gain for Dow industrials. My proprietary analytics does not show a nearby value level and my weekly, monthly and quarterly risky levels are 477.82, 498.29 and 499.85. Chart Courtesy of Thomson/Reuters