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The Election Cycle: What to Expect in Stocks and Bond Prices

So looking forward to this week and the next two months, I would not be surprised to see bond prices rise or trade sideways while stocks move higher. This analysis is based on Obama winning. If Romney wins then I feel bonds will rally much more and stocks could sell off.

iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT): Daily Chart:

Here is a chart of 20+ year bonds showing a possible reversal to the upside that could trigger as soon as next week. This chart is forward looking one to two weeks.

Overall, the trend remains down but if Romney wins I feel bonds break out above the red resistance levels and trigger a new uptrend.

Election-Year Trading Cycle Conclusion:

Next week is going to be very interesting to watch unfold. I generally do not like to trade or invest before news of this magnitude so trade smaller sizes if you do as price action could be wild.

This article was written by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.

This commentary comes from an independent investor or market observer as part of TheStreet guest contributor program. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of TheStreet or its management.

Chris Vermeulen is founder of the popular trading sites www.thegoldandoilguy.com and www.ActiveTradingPartners.com. There he shares his highly successful, low-risk trading method. Since 2001, Chris has been a leader in teaching others to skillfully trade in gold, silver, oil and stocks in both bull and bear markets.

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