"Investment Theme -- The Status Quo.
: Will have to focus on U.S. based investments seeing as Obama has been slow to sign trade agreements. Housing will benefit from (Federal Reserve Chief Ben) Bernanke staying on board (Romney wanted him out).
: Obamacare not repealed, more people will have access to drugs/care. Want to think about health care information technology, pharmacy benefit managers and a retailer such as ,
: Given track record while in office, government will continue to play a larger role in society under Obama. That reads as favorable to the food stamp program, and you want to look at dollar stores (which now accept food stamps).
as housing/alternative energy play."
"Who could be losers: Dividend paying stocks that trade at above market multiples given potential outcome on the dividend tax. Thinking along the lines of consumer staples. Medical device makers, new tax inside Obamacare stays in place."
"The phrase 'under Obama,' as in 'most oil stocks fared badly under Obama,' or 'you had to buy the drug stocks under Obama,' simply doesn't hold up as a thesis. Sure some stocks have done better with Obama than without him. Others will fare better if Romney wins.
"But for the most part, when I look at individual stocks, which is more my thing than the top down, I see stocks doing better where management excelled and stocks doing worse where management failed to execute.
"There are many, many stocks that are amazingly unchanged over the last five years, which encompasses Obama but also gets the tag end of the Bush era. I think that's an important prism, because if Obama were a trend reversal president there should be a bunch of stocks that should have done U-turns and another bunch of stocks, fewer, that should have blossomed, if you believe that the stock market hinges on Washington, something, again, I do not believe simply because the charts don't say it is the truth."
predict index movements, earnings, action in currencies and precious metals, as well as what the Federal Reserve will say or do. So why shouldn't we predict elections, too?
"I think this one can be summed up simply by saying: Expect more of the same. After the election, the U.S. should have the same balance of power that's been in place over the last four years. Of course, precise numbers won't be the same -- they never are -- but, for the most part, I'm not expecting much change. This doesn't exactly have me boasting about the near-term future of our economy or the equity markets -- but let's get back to the results.
"On the executive side, I expect President Obama to win re-election despite the Washington Redskins losing this past weekend. (If you don't know what I am talking about, then feel free to
that one.) I am anticipating an Electoral College total in the 280-to-290 range for Obama, with a small possibility of seeing a number slightly above 300. I don't think this will feel 'close,' though, as many of those votes will come early and from the Eastern and Central time zones. The popular vote doesn't matter, but I do expect it to be very, very close -- and I'd give the edge to Romney, mostly based on the belief that turnout will be relatively low overall, especially in the states Obama will win.
"On the Senate side, I expect the Democrats to retain control by a 51-to-49 or 52-to-48 margin. So I don't expect the majority to be a strong one, and I predict a few too many fence-sitters. Tack on the fact the Republicans will control the House with an expected 245 to 250 seats, and I think we are in for another grinding four years in which little will get accomplished with any ease."