The Jobs-Report Black Box: It's Game On
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Here's how the jobs report supports the new bullish indicators.
- We saw month-on-month acceleration. Considering also the September revision, plus the upward revisions, these numbers align well with comments from select bellwether industrial companies on improved order and price patterns at the end of the third quarter. Also, the factors explain -- and justify -- positive surprises in sales and profit from best-in-show retailers during must-shop periods.
- The market will perceive October as being at risk for an upward revision in the November release.
- The report is not hot enough to relinquish the Federal Reserve from its monthly money handout, so this has potentially created a possible sweet spot for the market in terms of perception: Fed accommodation plus jobs growth inside a tight band.
- Leisure employment surprised me, and I know it may whacky to say, but it suggests a degree of stabilization to the situation in the European Union -- that is, policy decisions may be finally transmitting to the real economy.
- Manufacturing could have been worse, given the regional report reads and earnings calls, but it wasn't -- and that is another plank to the China recovery story.
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