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Kass: More on the Business of Politics

  • Electoral College: Obama 303.4 (+3.5) , Romney 234.5 (-3.5)
  • Chance of Winning: Obama 80.9% (+1.9%), Romney 19.1% (-1.9%)
  • Popular Vote: Obama 50.5% (0), Romney 48.4% (-0.1%)

And here is an interesting scenario analysis by Silver, which gauges how often the following situations occurred during repeated simulated elections:

  • Electoral College tie (269 electoral votes for each candidate) 0.3%
  • Recount (one or more decisive states within 0.5 percentage points) 9.4%
  • Obama wins popular vote 78.5%
  • Romney wins popular vote 21.5%
  • Obama wins popular vote but loses electoral college 2.0%
  • Romney wins popular vote but loses electoral college 4.4%
  • Obama landslide (double-digit popular vote margin) 0.5%
  • Romney landslide (double-digit popular vote margin) <0.1%
  • Map exactly the same as in 2008 <0.1%
  • Map exactly the same as in 2004 <0.1%
  • Obama loses at least one state he carried in 2008 99.9%
  • Obama wins at least one state he failed to carry in 2008 5.4%

Here is the latest from Real Clear Politics, and here is Intrade (Obama at 66.6% (+1.1% from yesterday), and Romney at 33.5% (-1.5% from yesterday).
Doug Kass is the president of Seabreeze Partners Management Inc. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

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