Kass: More on the Business of Politics
In conclusion, it is unclear why anyone projects his or her personal political views at all in a public forum such as Real Money Pro or TheStreet. I have spent 62 years formulating my political views and so have subscribers spent their lives in developing their own views. It is unlikely that my view will be changed, nor will yours, so why bother to vent?
What Really Matters
What I do care about (and what you should care about) is how the election will impact the capital markets, and in " The Business of Politics" that is exactly what I tried to spell out. Frankly, I tried to document/analyze it in an objective and detailed manner and many high-profile hedge-hogger friends from both sides of the pew have remarked to me that it was one of my best columns this year.
To those critics who suggest I am biased in what pollster to emphasize, I am not, as I am mining in the investment process and not in the political process. If you have a better, more exhaustive and historically successful analysis (not sound bites of conservatism or liberalism), let's compare. It is not that my selection is better, it is that I have spent a lot of time of thinking about the election's impact on stocks and bonds and in researching the pollsters.Most recently, I have highlighted Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight blog as my go-to blog in determining the ultimate election outcome. As I mentioned, many have written to me that Silver, ostensibly because he is a writer for The New York Times, is a flaming liberal and his polls are biased. If one spent the time - unfortunately, I suspect few have done this, especially those that object the loudest -- in researching Silver's background and his forecasting methodology, you would likely come to the same conclusion I have come to: Silver's mathematical background (which started with a unique and widely successful baseball analysis) yields a unique, productive and objective forecast. Is his projection guaranteed? Of course not. But it is the best I can find. Please read Silver's blog with emphasis on his scenario analysis and state-by-state projections on the right hand side of the blog. Read all the way down on the right side of his blog and tell me if there is any more comprehensive measurement system? (And please note, I include Intrade and Real Clear Politics polls in every column in addition to Silver's FiveThirtyEight.)
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