Analysis of Nymex Crude Oil ($86.12): The weekly chart for crude oil stays negative on a close Friday below the five-week MMA at $90.94. The 200-week simple moving average is a major support at $82.64 with my new monthly value level at $76.96. My annual and quarterly risky levels are $103.58 and $107.31, so there's room for significant volatility. The 200-week SMA has been a magnet since mid-2009.
Analysis of the euro vs the dollar (1.2940): The weekly chart shifts to negative with a close Friday below the five-week MMA at 1.2876. My new monthly value level lags at 1.2289 with semiannual and quarterly pivots at 1.2917 and 1.3048. A stronger dollar should put pressure on U.S. stocks.
Analysis of the Dow Industrial Average (13,233): The weekly chart stays negative with a close Friday below the five-week MMA at 13,308. My annual value level lags at 12,312 with my new monthly pivot at 13,143 and annual and quarterly risky levels at 14,032 and 14,192. The QE3 high is 13,661.87 was set on Oct. 5, and the October 2007 high is 14,198.10. Note that the risky levels are below the 2007 high.
Analysis of the Dow Transportation Average (5167): The weekly chart for the Dow Transports shifts to positive on a close Friday above the five-week MMA at 5051 as "QE Fatigue" goes into remission. My new monthly pivot is 5053 with the Sept. 14 QE3 high at 5231.15. The all-time high at 5627.85 was set on July 7, 2011.Analysis of the S&P 500 (1427.6) -- The weekly chart stays negative with a close Friday below the five-week MMA at 1428.6. My annual value level is 1363.2 with a new monthly pivot at 1418.7, and quarterly and annual risky levels at 1513.3 and 1562.9. The Sept. 14 QE3 high is 1474.51 with the Oct 2007 high at 1576.09. Note that the risky levels are below the 2007 high. Analysis of the Nasdaq (3020) -- The weekly chart stays negative on a close Friday below the five-week MMA at 305. The November 2007 high is 2861.51 with my annual value level at 2698, a new monthly pivot at 3028, and annual and quarterly risky levels at 3210, 3232 and 3295. The Sept. 21 QE3 high is 3196.93.
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