The GSEs and state insurance regulators impose various capital requirements on our insurance subsidiaries. These include risk-to-capital ratios, risk-based capital measures and surplus requirements that potentially limit the amount of insurance that each of our insurance subsidiaries may write. The GSEs and our state insurance regulators also possess significant discretion with respect to our insurance subsidiaries. Our failure to maintain adequate levels of capital, among other things, could lead to intervention by the various insurance regulatory authorities or the GSEs, which could materially and adversely affect our business, business prospects and financial condition.
Under state insurance regulations, Radian Guaranty is required to maintain minimum surplus levels and, in certain states, a minimum amount of statutory capital relative to the level of risk in force, or “risk-to-capital.” Sixteen states (the risk-based capital or “RBC States”) currently impose a statutory risk-based capital requirement (the “Statutory RBC Requirement”), the most common of which requires that a mortgage insurer’s risk-to-capital ratio not exceed 25 to 1. In some of the RBC States (the “MPP States”), Radian Guaranty is required to maintain a minimum policyholder position (the “MPP Requirement”). Unless an RBC State grants a waiver or other form of relief, if a mortgage insurer is not in compliance with the Statutory RBC Requirement of an RBC State, it may be prohibited from writing new mortgage insurance business in that state. Radian Guaranty’s domiciliary state, Pennsylvania, is not one of the RBC States. In 2011, and during the nine months ended September 30, 2012, the RBC States accounted for approximately 50.5% and 54.7%, respectively, of Radian Guaranty’s total primary new insurance written.
As a result of ongoing losses, Radian Guaranty’s risk-to-capital ratio has increased to 20.1 to 1 as of September 30, 2012. The ultimate amount of losses we incur and the timing of these losses will depend, in part, on general economic conditions and other factors, including the health of credit markets, home prices and unemployment rates, all of which are difficult to predict and beyond our control. Based on our current projections, we expect Radian Guaranty’s risk-to-capital ratio to continue to increase. Absent any further risk-to-capital support, we expect Radian Guaranty to exceed the 25 to 1 risk-to-capital ratio requirement during 2013 and the MPP Requirement in two states as early as of the end of 2012. Each of the MPP States has issued to Radian Guaranty a waiver of its MPP Requirement, subject to certain conditions discussed below.