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Weakening Technicals Are the Halloween Trick

NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- With the stock markets closed on Monday and Tuesday, today could provide Halloween trick or treat volatility.

Monthly closes relative to five-month modified moving averages are important as closes below would be the trick indication of weakening technicals. Closes above the five-week MMAs could treat the bulls to a temporary rebound in front of Friday's employment report.

Today's closes are inputs to my proprietary analytics and will provide new monthly value levels, pivots and risky levels. For the Dow Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq, which have overbought momentum (12x3x3 monthly slow Stochastic) reading, will likely have tight monthly risky levels when November begins Thursday.

Analysis of the Yield on the 10-Year Treasury Note (1.756) -- The monthly chart shows that the long term down trend for yields is overdone. A close today below the five-month MMA at 1.760% keeps a tight trading range in tact around my semiannual pivot at 1.853%. My prediction is that we have seen the low yield for this cycle, which was 1.377% set in July. This was a test of my semiannual risky level at 1.389%, where investors should have booked profits in U.S. Treasuries. If this yield ends October above 1.760%, and is followed by a weekly close above 1.853%, the risk is to higher yields, my quarterly and annual value levels at 2.109% and 2.502%. The long term down trend is the 120-month simple moving average at 3.670%.

Chart Courtesy of Thomson/Reuters

Analysis of Comex Gold ($1,717.70) -- The monthly chart for gold remains positive with rising momentum with the five-month MMA at $1,677.10 as major chart support. My semiannual and annual value levels are $1,643.30 and $1575.80 with my semiannual pivot at $1,702.50, and quarterly risky levels at $1,844.90 and $1,881.40. My prediction remains that the all-time high at $1,923.70 set in September 2011 is the top of the gold bubble.

Analysis of Nymex Crude Oil ($86.43) -- The monthly chart for crude oil has been negative since the end of May with the five-month MMA at $92.26. The 120-month SMA is a major support at $69.50. The 120-month SMA was a stabilizing force in the first four months of 2009. My semiannual value level is $76.71 with annual and quarterly risky levels at $103.58 and $107.31.
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