Canada And World Pulled Back Into Growth By Recovering U.S. Private Sector: EDC Forecast
Canada is poised to benefit. While Canada's domestic economy is softening, the U.S. revival, together with sustained forays into fast-growing emerging markets and a slightly softer loonie will lift Canadian GDP growth to 2 per cent this year and 2.2 per cent next. The Canadian dollar is forecast to dip from parity this year to 97 US cents in 2013 as commodity prices weaken over the same period.
"The timing is good for Canadian exporters. The rest of the economy will be looking to exporters for growth, as Canada bumps up against internal weakness. Consumers are overstretched, running up debts to historic heights during the recession years, government spending is in retreat, and unlike the U.S., Canada's housing markets are oversupplied."
EDC's forecast confirms that emerging markets will continue to boost global growth overall, but are experiencing slowdowns in important parts of their economies. Together, emerging markets will continue to outpace the developed world by a large margin, averaging 5.3 per cent in 2012 and 5.6 per cent in 2013.
Hall cautions, however, that "the dramatic growth of emerging markets is certainly lifting global average performance significantly, but at present, they are hardly pulling the rest of the world along. Among these economies, growth is static at best. India, China and Brazil are each battling significant slowdowns, highlighting their dependence on growth in the developed world and their own hefty stimulus programs, but to date have not matured enough to launch the next growth cycle."EDC's semi-annual Global Export Forecast addresses the latest global export conditions including perspectives on interest rates, exchange rates as well as export strategies to help Canadian companies minimize risk. It also analyzes a range of risks for which exporters should be prepared. The forecast is available on EDC's website at : http://www.edc.ca/gef. EDC is Canada's export credit agency, offering innovative commercial solutions to help Canadian exporters and investors expand their international business. EDC's knowledge and partnerships are used by more than 7,700 Canadian companies and their global customers in up to 200 markets worldwide each year. EDC is financially self-sustaining and a recognized leader in financial reporting and economic analysis. SOURCE Export Development Canada
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