At some point we will reach the resource-constraint boundary. Until then, let's take it for what it is as the heartless economic beasts that we are supposed to be in the market: It's bullish.
Gold, as represented by
SPDR Gold Shares
likely will go up since QE3 has changed gold into a proxy for the U.S. economy.
Gold used to be a hedge after the 2008 crisis. If the U.S. economy was bad, the
was expected to print money in one way or another, and gold was expected to rise.
But QE3 changed this dynamic. Because QE3 is committed to infinity and a minimum monthly amount, continued bad economic data would cast doubt on the efficacy of QE3 while good data would imply higher inflation expectations.
Over the intermediate term, beyond the hurricane impact of days to weeks, the economic picture is much murkier. Several sector leaders' earnings thus far have been bad.
There is no sign of QE3 having any impact in the economy beside higher inflation expectations, although admittedly it may be too soon to judge.
The fiscal cliff is used as a big stick by both sides as well as the media to grab attention, although it would be a monumental joke if it actually happens. The eurozone, while improving in some aspects, is never far from the next flare-up.
China is still not sure what to do with the myriad of economic and social issues amid its continuing transition of power. Over this time horizon, the
has worn off; depression will likely set in during the morning after. The downside risk has increased until either the supposed fiscal cliff comes to its resolution or we begin to see signs that the economy is improving.
At the time of publication, Bo Peng was long gold
This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.