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Honeywell Global Business Aviation Forecast Sees Three To Four Percent Average Annual Industry Growth In Next Decade

Stocks in this article: HON

Higher purchase expectations continue to be placed upon larger aircraft, implying they will command the bulk of the value billed from now until 2022. This class of business jet is expected to account for nearly 70 percent of all expenditures on new business jets. Volume growth between now and 2022 will also be represented by this class of aircraft, reflecting more than one-third of additional units and two-thirds of additional retail value.

"The trend toward larger cabin aircraft with ever-increasing range expectations and advanced avionics continues to be reflected in this year's survey," said Rob Wilson, president, Honeywell Business and General Aviation. "As a full spectrum supplier to the industry, Honeywell has been successful in building strong content levels on most of the more popular super midsize and larger aircraft in production or scheduled to enter service over the next few years."

"The Honeywell operator survey has been an invaluable tool for the industry over the past two decades," explained Carl Esposito, Honeywell Aerospace Vice President of Marketing and Product Management. "The annual outlook has helped guide our own product decision process that has led to focused investments such as designing and developing optimized propulsion offerings, flight efficiency upgrades, innovative safety products, and enhanced services."


Regional purchasing results are nuanced according to each market's maturity, economic environment and other characteristics. Emerging markets generally show higher but historically more volatile levels of demand, as well as a more pronounced preference for larger aircraft. As developed markets' performance strains under both economic sluggishness and business lifecycle transitions, emerging markets have been shaping the industry's growth, backlog and portfolio composition or mix.

The overall level of forecast aircraft demand coming from outside North America continues to increase as projected. This year, roughly 53 percent of projected demand comes from North American operators, down two points from the 2011 survey.

Honeywell first spotlighted growth in the BRIC countries ( Brazil, Russia, India and China) last year. In 2011, these results led the survey with 50 percent of respondents reporting acquisition plans. This has since lowered to 46 percent but with a firming profile. While last year less than one-third of BRIC purchases were planned to happen within two years, this year more than 40 percent of those surveyed say they intend to begin purchasing activity in the next two-year timeframe. Some signs of uncertainty regarding business conditions do show up in this group's timing profile, with a marked increase of purchases not allocated to a specific year or placed by default in 2017.

Together, the emerging market results from BRIC countries reflect a slight tempering of enthusiasm compared to a year ago but are still quite strong when compared with other regions, or with results accrued during the more than 20 years Honeywell has been conducting this survey.

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