Time to Buy Gold?
NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Gold futures have been trending lower in recent weeks after failing to breach the heavy band of overhead resistance from $1,790 to $1,800. Gold put in a swing low of $1,698.70 during Wednesday's session.
Now, I do not think that fundamentally anything has changed. What we have seen recently is a general period of "risk-off" trade which has affected everything from the equities markets to gold to grains.
And as I have stated, this should come as no surprise. After all, we are looking at a very tight presidential election, we have the "fiscal cliff" issue to deal with and earnings have largely been a disappointment at this point.
So why would one buy gold here? Well, for a few reasons I think.Although gold has been trending down on the daily chart, it Is still in a solid uptrend on the weekly as well as monthly timeframes. Therefore, the bigger picture is still pointing to higher prices. On the daily chart, gold has retraced approximately 50% of the breakout move from $1,590.40 to $1,798.80. The "half-back" trade is a common setup, and if the market can hold this level then some upside in the coming days is likely. The market remains above the 100-day exponential moving average on the daily timeframe. At some point, I feel that shorts will look to cover -- possibly starting Friday -- and prices will benefit from a good old-fashioned short covering rally. Besides, with everything going on the world right now who wants to go into the weekend short? The market has reached a technically oversold condition. Money printing and stimulus measures by global central banks I feel are likely to keep a floor under gold prices as faith in fiat continues to dwindle. Time will tell if the longer-term trends turn bearish in gold or not, but I think at a minimum some short-term upside is likely. So, how does one take advantage of this upside should it materialize? Well there are numerous ways. I think one could look to sell deep out-of-the-money puts or put spreads here. Something along the lines of the January $1590 puts looks attractive. Feel free to contact me for option setups or help in structuring a position.
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