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Apple: Don't Believe Haters, Hype and Hysteria

Stocks in this article: AAPL GOOG

Mashable reprinted a BusinessNewsDaily story that regurgitated data from a TechBargains survey of "1,322 consumers contacted by" the firm.

We get a whole host of seemingly bearish numbers and opinion in the report.

The findings show that "only 18% of respondents plan to purchase an iPad Mini," while "45% of respondents from the same survey" say they will buy the new iPhone.

TechBargains president and editor-in-chief Yung Trang provides this loose analysis of the results:

Given Apple's recent success, it would be easy to assume that all new Apple products will be wildly popular. Our survey results indicate that theory is no longer the case. According to our survey respondents, the so-called iPad Mini will not be highly coveted because consumers are questioning the necessity of a smaller iPad, especially if they own an iPad or an iPhone

While I give Trang credit for not generalizing the results beyond the TechBargains' sample, I'll pass on further props.

TechBargains obviously shopped its research around. I received an email from the company gauging my interest in using it.

When I receive these requests, I respond asking for a detailed description of research methodology, particularly How did you draw the sample and who comprises it? I rarely receive an answer that warrants broadcast of the findings and conclusions.

TechBargains told me that the crowd it surveyed is "tech savvy" and made up of "early adopters." Stop right there. Red flag number one. And it's the only one you need.

The person who emailed me was either being honest, figured that the sample composition would impress me or a mix of both.

In any event, the results provide zero visibility into how Apple's iPad mini will do. They're useless. For goodness sake, the respondents knew nothing about the product, including actual price, screen size and quality of construction or design. Yet the results make it to print and a solid outlet, Mashable, picks the story up, prompting a moderate level of sharing across social networks.

So, chew on that and understand that Tuesday's sell-off was way overdone.

In my other iPad mini article today, I get deeper into the reason why and how I think investors should play it.

Given the dismal reaction, expect more errant surveys and thoughtless analyses of Apple's market to come out.

More people will decide that my long-term view of an Apple without Steve Jobs actually makes sense. While I appreciate the validation, they're all jumping the gun. It's a long-term story that I don't expect to come to by Christmas.

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