"Now is the time to own Amarin shares over the balance of 2012, we believe."
Sounds bullish, as does Lazard's $26 price target, but take a closer look at the "valuation matrix" for Amarin offered by analyst Bill Tanner because it paints a less rosy picture.
Tanner concocts 10 possible commercial scenarios for Amarin's prescription fish-oil pill Vascepa. Four of them value Amarin shares between $4 and $11, meaning at or below the current stock price. The other six scenarios value Amarin shares between $13 and $39.The average price of Tanner's Amarin "valuation matrix" works out to $17 per share -- a 50% bump from the stock's current level. Not bad, but a lower price target than the one espoused by die-hard Amarin bulls. By the way, if you throw out the low and high scenarios in Tanner's calculations, Amarin's fair value falls to $15 per share, which is basically where the stock traded when Vascepa was approved in July.
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