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The Day Ahead: Take a Vow of Stock Celibacy

That was some N.Y. Giants game, huh? Eli Manning reminds me of value investing actually working in a world of technology advances; if his stock was bought early on in his career at a low valuation amid fan gripes and poor play, then it would have paid handsome rewards by now to those with foresight. But I digress; a serious week is upon us, one that has me wondering if the market's still hearty year-to-date gains will be met by more sandmen. From my perch, all I have landed since Friday's Mini Massacre Day is "Do I buy the plunge?" or "Hey, kid, should have listened to ya, what's the deal?" What I suggest is joining me to take a vow of stock-buying celibacy. The call to arms has been heard throughout the land. Laugh in the faces of those stating they are looking for bargains, for you have ample and valid information to counter their claims. Take the vow of stock celibacy, and be prepared to dive into action for the bullets will be flying hot and heavy this week.

The Five Principles of Stock Celibacy

You Keep Getting Denied Wins

Along the way, I have offered the advice to pay careful attention to how a leading stock reacts to an earnings report to predict whether markets stand to rebound, correct, or keep on doing what they are doing. Kansas City Southern (KSU) toyed with my emotions on Mini Massacre Day, gaining ground despite revenue and earnings shortfalls. That action would normally pique my interest, except it had zero spillover to other leading indicator stocks, especially in tech. In fact, the Nasdaq continues to trade below its 50-day moving average ahead of a bunch of key sector reports that will have dreariness attached (if Google (GOOG) can't strongly monetize a mobile ad, why should Facebook (FB) deliver improvement?)

You See Nothing of Encouragement

Not sure if you are listening to earnings calls or just trading with friends for fun, but the weakness in tech fits snuggly with the hesitance by industrials to invest in their businesses. While there is certainly a component of fiscal-cliff fear involved, a cloud of smoke hangs over the strength of our export partners. Shareholders want returns today, execs are aware of this and their year-end bonus structures, so global clouds have given them a reason to plan with a short-term mindset. Also, think long and hard why suddenly there has been all these new restructuring plans announced before year's end -- execs want their loot, and any many are compensated on EBIT growth.

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Chart of I:DJI
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