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Buy Green Mountain When Others Sell

Fundamental factors: This former high flyer is still widely followed on Wall Street where 10 firms have assigned a total of 14 analysts to run projections on this stock. They still think revenue will grow by 43.90% this year and another 14.90% next year. Earnings are estimated to increase by 36.60% this year, 12.10% next year and continue to grow at an annual rate of 20.60% for the next five years.

In addition to a low P/E, the company has a B financial strength and maintains a great operating margin which continues to stay in the high teens. Although they recently lost the Starbucks brand they are still signing on other new specialty roasters.

Investor interest: Wall Street analysts still have four strong buy, three buy, six hold and only one sell recommendation in place. They think that investors at this price could see annual total returns in the 55% to 60% over the next five years.

Using the readers of Motley Fool as a gauge for the individual investor sentiment 1,486 readers have given the stock a 71% vote of confidence to beat the market. TheStreet rates GMCR a C stock.

Some peer comparisons: In this highly competitive market let's look at some of the smaller players in this sector.

Peets Coffee and Tea (PEET)has been rated B- by TheStreet. With a B++ financial strength analysts think revenue will grow 9.90% next year and earnings will increase by 23.00% annually for the next five years.

Farmer Brothers Company (FARM) has a D rating by TheStreet. The financial strength is B+ and analysts think revenue will grow by 2.70% next year but earnings are estimated to decrease by an annual rate of 19.60% over the next five years.

Coffee Holdings (JVA) is rated C+ by TheStreet. With a financial strength of B the revenue projection is to increase by 9.50% next year and earnings should compound with increases of 16.00% annually for the next five years.

Conclusion: Green Mountain Coffee Roasters looks like a value investing opportunity at this level. The P/E is a discount to the market and the professional analysts look for double digit earnings growth for the next five years.

Barchart computes a technical support level at 21.19 and I think that when this stock price breaks above its 20-day moving average and moves off it's lower 14-day turtle channel that would be the time to jump on board. Put it on your watch lists and keep a chart like the one below handy:

At the time of publication the author had no position in any of the stocks mentioned.

This article was written by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.
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